Executive Summary

Q3 2025 was operationally solid with continued execution in CML (TERN-701) and an explicit strategic pivot away from metabolic disease after TERN-601 missed differentiation thresholds; cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities ended at $295.6M with runway “into 2028” .
EPS modestly beat S&P Global consensus for the third straight quarter (Q3 actual -$0.27 vs -$0.296 consensus)*, with operating expenses broadly stable; no revenue was reported as the company remains pre-commercial .
Key catalyst: an oral presentation at ASH (Dec 8, 2025) featuring an expanded CARDINAL dataset after the abstract showed unprecedented 24-week cumulative MMR of 75% (64% achieving, 100% maintaining), including difficult-to-treat subgroups .
Strategy sharpened: TERN-601 Phase 2 topline showed max 12-week placebo-adjusted weight loss of 4.6% with safety flags (post-treatment Grade 3 LFT elevations); Terns will not advance TERN-601 and is seeking partners for metabolic assets .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Strong emerging efficacy for TERN-701 in CML: ASH abstract showed overall 24-week cumulative MMR of 75% (64% achieving MMR; 100% maintaining), including 69% in patients with lack of efficacy to last TKI and 60% in prior-asciminib patients; no loss of MMR at cutoff and encouraging safety/tolerability .
- Clear catalyst path: Expanded, updated CARDINAL data to be presented orally at ASH on Dec 8 with a company webcast at 4:30pm ET the same day, likely increasing investor focus on registrational path .
- Balance sheet resilience and runway: $295.6M in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities; runway into 2028 reiterated, supporting continued CML execution .
What Went Wrong
- Metabolic program setback: TERN-601 Phase 2 did not meet the threshold for differentiation; program will not advance; 12% discontinuations due to AEs and post-treatment Grade 3 LFT elevations observed in three participants (two likely drug-related) .
- OpEx still elevated with ongoing development: Q3 R&D $19.9M and G&A $7.8M; net loss widened YoY to $24.6M as the company remains pre-revenue .
- Limited disclosure on financial guidance beyond cash runway; no earnings call transcript was available via our sources for incremental detail/clarifications this quarter (a transcript could not be located) .

Financial Results

Income Statement and Cash Metrics

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
R&D Expense ($M)	$18.7	$20.4	$19.9
G&A Expense ($M)	$8.7	$7.0	$7.8
Total Operating Expenses ($M)	$27.4	$27.4	$27.7
Interest Income ($M)	$3.6	$3.4	$3.1
Net Loss ($M)	$(23.9)	$(24.1)	$(24.6)
EPS (Basic & Diluted)	$(0.26)	$(0.26)	$(0.27)
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities ($M, period-end)	$334.3	$315.4	$295.6

Note: Company provided no revenue line items and remains pre-commercial this quarter .

Balance Sheet Highlights

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Total Assets ($M)	$339.3	$320.4	$301.7
Total Equity ($M)	$326.0	$305.2	$284.1
Total Liabilities ($M)	$13.3	$15.2	$17.6

KPIs (Clinical)

KPI	Detail	Source
CARDINAL 24-week cumulative MMR	75% overall; 64% achieving MMR; 100% maintaining MMR; no patients lost MMR at cutoff
Difficult-to-treat subgroups MMR by 24 weeks	69% lack of efficacy to last TKI; 60% prior asciminib; 67% prior asciminib/ponatinib/investigational TKI
Safety snapshot (CARDINAL)	Encouraging safety/tolerability across doses; majority TEAEs low grade; most common AEs: diarrhea 22%, headache 18%, nausea 16%
TERN-601 Phase 2 outcome	Max placebo-adjusted weight loss 4.6%; 12% discontinued due to AEs; three post-treatment Grade 3 LFT elevations (two likely drug-related); program discontinued

Guidance Changes

Metric/Topic	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Cash Runway	Multi-year	“Into 2028” (Q1, Q2)	“Into 2028” reiterated (Q3)	Maintained
TERN-701 data timing	4Q25	Additional safety/efficacy incl. 6‑mo MMR in 4Q25	Expanded, updated dataset oral at ASH Dec 8, 2025; company webcast at 4:30pm ET	Clarified (date/event set)
TERN-601 program status	4Q25	Phase 2 topline expected early 4Q25	Topline reported; program will not advance	Lowered/ceased
Metabolic portfolio strategy	Ongoing	Seek partners; no clinical investment beyond YE25	Reaffirmed partnering; internal metabolic development discontinued	Maintained/operationalized
TERN-801 (GIPR antagonist)	3Q25	Discovery effort ongoing	Development candidate nominated; seeking partner	New milestone; partnering focus

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: A Q3 earnings call transcript was not available in our document set; narrative below reflects quarter-over-quarter company disclosures.

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2)	Current Period (Q3)	Trend
Oncology focus/portfolio	Preparing TERN-701 for pivotal path; focusing company in oncology; partner metabolic assets	Strategy sharpened; internal metabolic development discontinued; partnering emphasized	Strengthening focus on oncology
TERN-701 efficacy/safety	Dose escalation completed; dose expansion initiated; expectations for 6‑mo MMR in 4Q25	ASH abstract shows unprecedented 24‑wk cumulative MMR 75% with encouraging safety; expanded dataset oral at ASH	Positive data momentum; key catalyst set
Metabolic (TERN-601)	Phase 2 FALCON enrolling; topline early 4Q25	Topline: modest efficacy, safety concerns; program discontinued	Program exited
Cash runway	Into 2028 reiterated	Into 2028 reiterated	Stable
Partnering (TERN‑501/801)	Seeking partners; advancing discovery	TERN‑801 nominated; seeking partner; THR‑β 501 partner sought	Partnering efforts advancing

Management Commentary

CEO framing on CML data and potential: “Unprecedented Phase 1 MMR achievement rate and encouraging safety/tolerability... potential of TERN‑701 to become a best-in-disease treatment for patients with CML.”
Execution and near-term catalyst: “Our team continues to execute with precision and focus towards an updated and expanded CARDINAL readout at ASH...”
Strategic focus from CFO: “We decided we would discontinue internal clinical development of our metabolic programs... their full potential can best be realized through external partnerships.”
TERN‑601 Phase 2 outcome (CEO): “The Phase 2 topline 12-week results for TERN‑601 did not meet this threshold and likely preclude further development.”

Q&A Highlights

An earnings call transcript for Q3 2025 was not available through our sources; the company will host a separate investor call on Dec 8, 2025 at 4:30pm ET following the ASH oral presentation to discuss TERN‑701 data, which should provide incremental details and Q&A opportunity .

Estimates Context

EPS vs S&P Global consensus: Terns modestly beat quarterly EPS consensus across Q1–Q3 2025 (Q3: -$0.27 actual vs -$0.296 consensus; Q2: -$0.26 vs -$0.286; Q1: -$0.26 vs -$0.270)*.
Consensus revenue remains $0 across quarters reflecting pre-commercial status; no company revenue reported this quarter .
Consensus target price steady at $28.44 with 9 contributing estimates through the period*.

Values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.

EPS vs Consensus

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
EPS Consensus Mean (S&P Global)*	-$0.270	-$0.286	-$0.296
EPS Actual	-$0.26	-$0.26	-$0.27
Beat/(Miss)	+$0.01	+$0.03	+$0.03

Revenue Consensus

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean (S&P Global, $M)*	$0.0	$0.0	$0.0

Key Takeaways for Investors

The ASH oral presentation (Dec 8) is the key near-term catalyst; the abstract already indicates best-in-disease potential with a 75% 24‑week cumulative MMR and encouraging safety, including in refractory subgroups .
Strategic focus is now squarely on oncology, with TERN‑601 discontinued and metabolic assets moving to partnering; expect R&D allocation to concentrate on TERN‑701 and oncology programs .
Cash runway into 2028 provides flexibility to pursue pivotal-enabling work post-ASH if data continue to support differentiation .
For modeling, maintain pre-revenue assumptions; OpEx trend is stable-to-slightly higher YoY given continued clinical execution, with quarterly net losses around $24–$25M .
Expect Street estimates to recalibrate around TERN‑701’s registrational path and timelines post-ASH, with potential upward bias to conviction if expanded data corroborate the abstract’s efficacy profile*.
Watch for partnership progress on TERN‑501/801 to potentially non-dilutively extend runway and crystallize value in non-core assets .

Citations:

Q3 2025 8-K and press release content, including financials, pipeline updates, and quotes:
ASH abstract press release and presentation timing:
TERN‑601 Phase 2 topline details and strategic decision:
Q2 and Q1 2025 financials and disclosures for trend context:

S&P Global disclaimer: Values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.

Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary